Pakistan November 2026 Rainfall Outlook — PMD Forecasts Above-Normal Rain in the North

Pakistan is heading for a wetter-than-usual November. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) says above-normal rainfall is expected across much of the country this month, with the heaviest rain focused on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Punjab and parts of Kashmir — while temperatures stay above average almost everywhere, rising most sharply in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern KP. It is a welcome change after a largely dry October. The plains stay mostly dry this week — the rain will arrive in spells, not all at once.

Which areas will get the most rain?

The north is the clear winner. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Punjab and parts of Kashmir are all forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, and the NDMA’s seasonal outlook puts numbers on it: precipitation anomalies of +40 to +70 mm over northern Pakistan during October and November, driven by western disturbances moving in from the west. Central Punjab and Balochistan sit in the middle, with near-normal rainfall expected. The south is the exception: Sindh, southern Balochistan and some districts of southern Punjab are forecast to receive slightly below-normal precipitation. A wet month in Peshawar does not mean a wet month in Karachi — southern farmers should not count on November rain to make up for a dry October.

Why is November looking wetter?

Two large-scale climate patterns are behind the forecast: a developing El Niño in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, in which the western Indian Ocean is warmer than the east. Together they tend to steer more moisture towards Pakistan, and this year they coincide with an active sequence of western disturbances — the low-pressure systems that bring most of Pakistan’s winter rain. The NDMA’s DEW-4 seasonal outlook for October to December 2026 describes exactly that pattern, followed by a clear weakening in December, when anomalies fall to just +5 to +10 mm. November is the wet window. October, by contrast, was mostly dry, with normal to below-normal rainfall in most areas, according to PMD — which is why November’s rain matters so much for soils, groundwater and the Rabi season.

A warmer November too

PMD also expects temperatures to run above average across the country, with the sharpest increases in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern KP. Days will stay mild for longer, the first real cold will be delayed, and in the mountains rain may fall where snow would normally be expected at lower elevations. In the plains, daytime temperatures are still warm this week — Islamabad is forecast to reach 27°C on Friday, November 6, Lahore 30°C and Karachi 36°C. That matters for health too: warmer days and standing water after rain extend the season in which dengue mosquitoes breed, so clear standing water around the home and keep using mosquito protection even as winter approaches.

What it means for farmers: Rabi sowing season

November is the heart of the Rabi sowing season, and the outlook is mostly good news for growers in the north and centre. Rain in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Punjab and Kashmir will help wheat and other Rabi crops get established after a dry October, and central Punjab’s near-normal outlook suits sowing on the usual schedule. Three practical points: sow when the soil has moisture — a rain spell followed by a dry gap is the ideal window, while sowing into waterlogged fields can rot seed. Growers in Sindh and southern Punjab should plan on irrigation rather than rainfall. And check short-range forecasts once sowing starts — the monthly outlook gives the trend for November as a whole, not which day the rain will fall. With input costs high this season, getting the sowing window right matters more than usual; for context, see our report on the flour price surge and atta rates in October 2026.

Travellers, fog and smog: what to expect

Rain in the north is good news for travellers heading to the mountains, but check the forecast before setting out. Light rain and snow are possible at isolated places in upper KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir this week, and that pattern is likely to repeat whenever a western disturbance passes. Mountain roads turn slippery quickly, and visibility drops fast in a hill shower. In the plains, the bigger concern is what follows the rain. November is the season when fog and smog settle over Punjab, and moisture, calm air and above-average temperatures can make early-morning visibility poor. Drivers on the motorways and GT Road should plan for slower journeys and check visibility advisories before early-morning travel, especially around Lahore, Gujranwala and Faisalabad. For a sense of how quickly rain can disrupt the plains, recall the PDMA rain alert for Lahore and Rawalpindi in October — November’s outlook is not a storm warning, but the same precautions apply: avoid unnecessary travel during a heavy spell and keep drains around the home clear.

This week: mostly dry plains

For now, there is no need to reach for the umbrella in the cities. On Friday, November 6, Islamabad is forecast to be partly cloudy with a high of 27°C and no chance of rain, Lahore is dry at 30°C in the day and 17°C at night, and Karachi is dry and warm at 36°C in the day and 21°C at night. The rain that is around is confined to the mountains — light rain and snow at isolated places in upper KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and north-eastern Balochistan. That dry start is normal: PMD has been clear that the outlook gives broad probabilistic trends for the month, not day-to-day predictions. A wetter-than-usual November can still begin with a dry week. And if the skies stay clear in the evenings this month, there is something else worth looking up for: the Northern Taurids meteor shower peaks on November 11–12, with dark skies thanks to the new moon on November 9.