TimelyUps · Trading Tools

Prop Firm Challenge Pass Probability Calculator

Can you actually pass that funded challenge? Run a 2,000-trade Monte Carlo simulation on your strategy and see your real odds — before you pay the fee.

Challenge Parameters

Firm Preset

Account Size ($)

Profit Target (%)

Max Drawdown (%)

From starting balance (static)

Your Win Rate (%)

Reward : Risk (e.g. 2 = 1:2)

Risk Per Trade (% of account)

Challenge Fee ($)

For EV calculation

Simulation: each run trades until the profit target is hit (pass), max drawdown is breached (fail), or 300 trades elapse. Presets use typical published params — always verify the firm’s current rules.

Pass Probability

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Expected Value

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Median Trades to Pass

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Avg Final Equity (pass runs)

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Bust Rate

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Timeout Rate

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a prop firm challenge?

Proprietary trading firms sell evaluations: hit a profit target (e.g. 10%) without breaching drawdown limits, and they fund you with their capital, splitting profits. Most traders fail — this calculator shows your mathematical odds.

What does expected value mean here?

Pass probability × funded account value − challenge fee. A positive EV means the challenge is statistically worth buying with your strategy.

Why Monte Carlo instead of a formula?

Drawdown path-dependency makes closed-form math unreliable. Simulating 2,000 random trade sequences captures the real distribution of outcomes.

Can I improve my pass odds?

Lower risk per trade, higher win rate, and better reward:risk all help. But the biggest lever is usually risk per trade — try 0.5% vs 2% and watch the difference.

Disclaimer: Educational simulation only — not financial advice. Presets are typical values, not official firm terms. Past strategy performance does not guarantee future results.